Poppits board, 4 November 2026

Agenda

What we learned, what it means for Poppits, what it costs, what we ask

Executive summary

3 min

The research and the companies we learned from

9 min

Poppits: the business, its challenges, the metrics

11 min

Why the plan is built this way, and how the company is run

10 min

The financials: three cases and the cash they need

14 min

The ask and the proof gates

3 min

What is built, blockers, the next 30 days

9 min

Executive summary

Base plan performance: headline numbers

Base case · households by October 2029

15,600

Kids' households, reported basis

Base case · revenue and EBITDA in 2029

$2.24M

EBITDA $324k, positive every month from Aug 2027

Base case · cash needed

$175k

$56k now; $119k after the March read

Upside · revenue and EBITDA in 2029

$10.69M

EBITDA $3.27M; it needs about $387k, earlier

Customers who come back decide who wins

The winners earned trust and a repeat habit

The failures lost their customers, not their marketing

Our challenge is a small, low-priced basket

The plan answers it; the first renewal is the number that matters

Fund the proof now; the rest after the March 2027 read

The research

110 research reports and about 2,900 sources stand behind the plan

Market analyses completed

Parents are moving to fluoride-free: 5.4% of US toothpaste sales, up from 3.9%

Comparable company analyses

The failures lost customers, not marketing battles

Product, supply and cost analyses

Unit cost falls with bigger batches and better sourcing, not with sales alone

Growth and channel analyses

Referrals, creators and retention are proven methods; our own rates are untested until launch

Compliance and claims analyses

We may say fluoride-free, cleans and freshens; not cavity prevention. All 50 states reviewed

Funding analyses

Comparable brands raised big rounds only after they had proved demand

Each number is the count of research reports in that group, 110 in all. Every figure in the research is labelled verified, reported or estimate and carries its source.

The companies we learned from

Fifteen companies: five acquired, three went public, four private, three failed

Oral care

Failed

Sold to Colgate, 2020
$351M

Private

Sold to Heyday, 2022

Private
raised $160M+

Subscription personal care

Sold to Unilever, 2016
about $1B

Private
valued at $1.7B

Sold to Edgewell, 2021
$310M

Went public, 2021
about $1.6B

Kids, family and beauty

Private
about $800M

Went public, 2026
about $811M

Went public, 2021
$1.44B

Sold to Church & Dwight
2022, $630M

Sold for about $103M, 2023
after a $300M IPO

Taken private, 2022
about $286M

Chapter 11, 2023

Private values are funding-round valuations, not exits. Logos for board use only.

What made them win

Winners earned trust, a repeat habit and demand a bigger buyer wanted

A brand with one clear reason to switch

Named one problem plainly

Billie, Dollar Shave Club

Led with one hero product

Hero

Protected parent trust

Lovevery, Once Upon a Farm

A business built on customers who come back

Earned the refill habit first

Hims & Hers

Entered retail only after proof

Hero, Billie

Controlled cost before scaling

Harry's; Hello Bello did not

Demand a larger buyer wanted

Sold to the leader in their aisle

Colgate, Edgewell, Church & Dwight

Proved demand a buyer could scale

Hero

Valued on proven sales

Hero at 5.5x sales

What sank the others

The failures did not lose on marketing; their customers did not come back

Blue Apron

−28%

Customers lost in one year, 2017

Casper

23%

Of direct customers were repeat buyers, 2019

Hello Bello

Ch. 11

Bankrupt in 2023, sunk by cost and stock

The lesson: retention, not marketing spend, separated the winners from the losers.

Why Poppits

Poppits starts with four advantages

1 · A habit becomes a subscription

Brushing happens every day

One supply is a month of gel; it renews every two months.

2 · A clear reason to switch

Clean teeth, minus the mess

One gel, no tube, no waste; a sink that stays clean.

3 · Order value can grow

One box, the whole family

More children, the parent, the adult product; all in the same shipment.

4 · A second channel that fits

Hotel packs add volume

Volume lowers the cost of every supply, with no new acquisition spend.

The winners earned a repeat habit, gave a plain reason to switch and widened the basket; Poppits is built to do the same.

Poppits today

A small, low-priced basket creates four challenges

The business

A month of gel for one child

65 gels a supply

$9.99 a supply

A subscription every 2 months

Our own site first

Then creators, ads, Amazon

300 founding boxes

Pre-ordered in December, shipped mid-January

C1 · Small basket

$19.98 −$0.83

A typical order; the first subscription order loses money, a renewal earns about $5.20

C2 · Unit cost

$3.08 → $1.84

Cost to make a supply, small batch to large

C3 · Shipping

$7.97

To ship a first order

C4 · Marketplace fees

35%

Amazon's share of a $24.99 kit

Costs are estimates and assumptions until supplier quotes arrive.

The metrics

One chain of metrics runs the company, from each shipment to the cash we need

Contribution per shipment

What each shipment earns after its costs

Retention

Who stays, led by the first renewal

→

Household value

What a household earns us over 24 months

Acquisition cost

What it costs to win a household

→

The spending test

Value at least 1.5x cost, or spend stops growing

→

Growth and cash

How fast we grow sets the cash we need

Marketing as a share of revenue is the second number we report. Emerging consumer brands typically spend 10 to 15% of revenue, up to 20 to 25% while launching. Base plans 31% in year 1, falling to 24% by 2029; Upside 23% falling to 17%.

Our levers

We control price, shipping and channels; we have to learn the renewal rate

Metric

We control

We have to learn

Contribution per shipment

Price, shipment size, shipping

Real cost quotes

First renewal

The offer, payment recovery

The rate: 55% assumed

Subscription take-up

Free container, kit first

The rate: 25% assumed

Acquisition cost

Channel mix

Cost by channel at volume

Value ÷ cost

The 1.5x spending rule

Whether it holds

Why the plan is built this way

Each challenge has a designed answer and a metric that tracks it

Challenge

Our answer

Metric

C1 Small basket

Subscription; the kit as first order; the adult product in the same box

Order value

C2 Unit cost

Large batches that sell within 9 months; hotel volume counts toward supplier savings

Cost per supply

C3 Shipping

Flat refill envelopes; a fulfilment partner at scale

Postage per order

C4 Marketplace fees

Amazon for discovery, kits only

Amazon margin

Beyond the kids' refill

The adult product raises order value; hotels are a modest paying customer

Adult product · April 2027

Same household, same box

Kids' subscribers add it; one order, one postage

Hotels · from mid-2027

A wrapped two-gel pack at about $0.90

Bought the way hotels buy amenities, mostly on request

Independent retail · off

An option, not the plan

Modelled as a switch so the board can see it

Base case

Adult product

Hotels

Retail (if on)

Share of revenue, 2027 to 2029

12%

19%

about 12%

Acquisition spend it needs

None: existing households

Two signings a month

Faire fees and testers

What it does to the plan

Order value up

Gel volume up, cost per supply down

Not in the plan

The upside case adds one airline contract from January 2028; it is upside only.

How the company is run

A founder, in-house AI systems and a fulfilment partner; people for the work that stays human

The founder, and the people added for work that stays human

Customers and care

Answers, renewals, failed payments and reviews handled by the care system; every reply checked against the claims rules.

A person signs off refunds and any complaint.

Supply and fulfilment

Stock, reorders and batch timing planned by the supply system; the fulfilment partner packs and ships.

A person places every supplier order.

Growth and content

Creator outreach, ad tests and content drafted and measured by the growth system against the spending rule.

A person approves every spend and every post.

Fulfilment partner: packs and ships from 300 orders a month

Nothing is sent, published, spent or promised without a named person saying yes.

End of 2029

Households

People

People a month

AI and platform a month

Floor

4,442

0.5

$2,200

$1,979

Base

16,384

$10,450

$5,964

Upside

73,324

$24,200

$14,002

People exclude the founder. AI and platform is tokens and software tiers, built and maintained in house.

The financials

Three cases: revenue, profit and the cash each needs

$000

Floor

Base

Upside

Net revenue FY2027

177.3

421.7

1,293.5

Net revenue FY2028

309.0

1,338.4

5,410.4

Net revenue FY2029

486.2

2,240.3

10,691.0

EBITDA FY2027

(56.3)

(0.7)

54.6

EBITDA FY2028

(1.9)

139.4

1,199.6

EBITDA FY2029

(2.0)

324.1

3,273.7

EBITDA positive every month from

Sep 2029

Aug 2027

Peak cash need

151.4

174.8

387.4

Fiscal years run November to October; FY2027 is the first year of sales. Upside is an illustrative upside: what it looks like if it works.

Income statement · Base case

Base case income statement, FY2026 to FY2029

$000

FY2026 (Nov-Dec)

FY2027

FY2028

FY2029

Net revenue

0.0

421.7

1,338.4

2,240.3

Growth %

n/m

217%

67%

Cost of goods sold

0.0

(108.4)

(293.9)

(464.2)

Gross profit

0.0

313.3

1,044.5

1,776.1

Gross margin %

n/m

74%

78%

79%

Fulfilment and selling

0.0

(140.7)

(424.0)

(707.1)

Contribution

0.0

172.5

620.5

1,069.0

Marketing

(2.3)

(132.8)

(358.1)

(543.1)

Contribution after marketing

(2.3)

39.7

262.4

525.9

Operating expenses

(6.0)

(40.4)

(122.9)

(201.8)

EBITDA

(8.3)

(0.7)

139.4

324.1

EBITDA margin %

n/m

10%

14%

Net income

(8.3)

(0.7)

139.4

324.1

Costs in parentheses. No debt, no asset purchases, and no income tax at company level (LLC).

Cash flow statement · Base case

Base case cash flow, FY2026 to FY2029

$000

FY2026 (Nov-Dec)

FY2027

FY2028

FY2029

Net income

(8.3)

(0.7)

139.4

324.1

Change in inventory

0.0

(65.8)

(113.2)

(19.9)

Change in supplier deposits and receivables

(14.1)

(31.7)

(15.9)

(22.9)

Change in customer deposits

6.0

(6.0)

0.0

Cash from operations

(16.3)

(104.2)

10.3

281.3

Equity raised (the staged ask)

56.3

118.5

0.0

Net change in cash

40.0

14.3

10.3

281.3

Opening cash

24.0

64.0

78.3

88.6

Closing cash

64.0

78.3

88.6

369.9

Opening cash $24,000. Balance sheet in the appendix.

The three cases

What has to be true in each case, and what each produces

Floor

Base

Upside

Founding boxes

100

200

300 + 150

Paid ads start at, per household

$30

$20

Costs 25% below Base

First orders that subscribe

25%

40%

Viral moments

None

Averaged in

Two, 2,500 households each

Amazon, units a month in its first year

180

360

720, then +10% a month

Marketing spend grows 12% a month while the 1.5x test passes, up to

$36k

$60k

$90k

Hotels

Never land

Two a month; one stay in five

Four a month; an airline from 2028

Active households, October 2029

4,442

15,567

66,480

Net revenue, FY2029

486.2

2,240.3

10,691.0

EBITDA, FY2029

(2.0)

324.1

3,273.7

EBITDA positive every month from

Sep 2029

Aug 2027

Peak cash need and month

151.4, May 2029

174.8, Oct 2028

387.4, Feb 2028

Marketing caps are paid and creator spend together. The renewal curve is the same in every case: 55% at the first renewal. Upside is illustrative: what it looks like if it works.

Where the growth comes from

In every case most households come from our own site and Amazon; hotels are an addition

Floor

62%

36%

Base

13k

11k

54%

21%

18%

30k

Upside

38k

63k

45%

25%

21%

10%

127k

New households, 2029:

Paid ads

Amazon

Creators

Referrals

Word of mouth

Viral moments

Revenue mix, 2029:

Own site, kids

Amazon

Hotels

Adult, own site

New households won in FY2029 by source, and the revenue mix that year. Marketing is 17% of revenue in the upside and 24% in Base.

The cash to get there

Where cash bottoms out in each case, and what moves it

Cash before funding, $000

Floor

Base

Upside

What moves the Base need (±20% on an input; hotels late or small)

Effect on the need

Subscription price

±$176k

Paid acquisition cost

±$163k

Subscription take-up

±$58k

Ingredient cost

±$51k

First renewal rate

±$47k

Hotels three months late

+$47k

Hotels six months late

+$99k

Hotels and adult at half

+$112k

Kids' product only

+$251k

Floor needs less than Base because the spending rule cuts spend when the economics fail: a smaller company, not a safer one. Upside needs more because the brand is built before subscriptions catch up.

Cash need = the deepest shortfall after the $24,000 on hand, plus a 20% buffer and a $4,000 reserve.

The ask

We have $24k. The base plan needs $175k, in two steps

Cash today

$24,000 on hand

November 2026. The founding edition ships in January; production is paid before sales, so cash is below the $4,000 reserve from January 2027.

The gap

-$142k at the low point, Oct 2028

The base plan's deepest shortfall before any funding. Add a 20% buffer and the reserve: a cash need of $175k (Floor $151k, Upside $387k).

When we need it

$56k now, $119k in April 2027

The proof budget carries months 1 to 5, to the March renewal read. The remainder is released only if the four tests pass.

What it is for

Stock, launch marketing, then growth

Now: the founding edition, the first gel batch, the January paid test and creator seeding, the Amazon listing, tools and insurance. April: the next batches as demand doubles, marketing growing 12% a month, the adult and hotel launches and their working capital.

The four proof tests, March 2027

Bar

Model assumes

First renewal

50%+

55%

Subscription take-up

20%+

25%

Value ÷ acquisition cost

1.5x+

1.7x

Cash use vs plan

Within 10%

n/a

The three paths

Now

April 2027

Total

Floor

$46k

$106k

$151k

Base

$56k

$119k

$175k

Upside

$104k

$283k

$387k

The read decides the path, and the remainder is sized to it. Floor and Base need about the same money; the upside needs 2.2 times as much because it grows faster.

Cash need = the deepest shortfall after the $24,000 on hand, plus a 20% buffer and a $4,000 reserve. Upside is an illustrative upside: what it looks like if it works.

What's already built

The plan, the brand and the systems to run Poppits are in place

Product and supply

Supply specified; supplier answers due 6 November

Brand and website

Brand guidelines locked; the Shopify site designed and in build

Compliance by design

50-state review; 105 launch checks

Research and records

110 reports; every decision on record

Operating platform

AI drafts and checks; a named person approves every send and spend

Website prototype, October 2026: the approved design direction, built as a clickable preview before the Shopify build.

The brand

One brand book runs every page, pack and post

Download the brand guidelines (PDF)

Six of the 33 pages: who we are, how we look, the product, imagery and applications.

The advisory council

Sixteen advisory roles, built to challenge every major decision with evidence

A bench of expert perspectives

Across the 16 disciplines a consumer brand needs

Built from public research, then tested

Two independent reviews each

The council advises; people decide

Launch

Ju Rhyu

Hero Cosmetics: launch to a $630M sale

Oral care

Craig Dubitsky

Founded hello, sold to Colgate

Retail

John Foraker

Ran Annie's; now CEO of Once Upon a Farm

Creative

Mike Cessario

Founded Liquid Death

Growth evidence

Byron Sharp

Author of How Brands Grow

An internal AI research tool. The people named have no affiliation with Poppits and have not reviewed, endorsed or been consulted on this work.

Blockers and risks

Three items stand between us and launch; two risks decide the plan

Item

Holds up

Next step

Supplier documents

Claims and launch

Supplier call, 6 November

A regulatory reviewer

All customer copy

Appoint one

Saleable stock

January shipments

Release, 14 November

Risk: retention is unproven

Whether growth pays

The four proof tests

Risk: thin cash and team

How fast we grow

The staged ask

Next 30 days

Supplier answers, the reviewed model and the founding pre-order

6 Nov

Supplier answers on price, rate and lead time

14 Nov

Pilot stock released

After review

Reviewed model; the cash plan signed off

November

Packaging quotes, mail test, regulatory reviewer, website build

December

Founding edition pre-order; boxes ship mid-January

The model shown today, independently reviewed, with the cash plan signed off.

Future discussions

One more session to schedule: leadership roles and compensation

Thank you.

Appendix

Balance sheet, the council roster, the case inputs and the benchmarks

Appendix · Balance sheet · Base case

Base case balance sheet, FY2026 to FY2029

$000

FY2026 (Nov-Dec)

FY2027

FY2028

FY2029

Cash

64.0

78.3

88.6

369.9

Inventory

0.0

65.8

179.1

198.9

Supplier deposits and receivables

14.1

45.8

61.7

84.5

Total assets

78.1

189.9

329.3

653.4

Customer deposits

6.0

0.0

Paid-in capital

80.3

198.8

Retained earnings

(8.3)

(9.0)

130.5

454.5

Total liabilities and equity

78.1

189.9

329.3

653.4

Year-end balances. The balance sheet balances in every month of the model.

Appendix · The advisory council

The other eleven roles

Discipline

Built from

Brand

Emily Heyward

Operations and supply

Laura Romano

Growth economics

Taylor Holiday

Customer economics

Peter Fader

Packaging and product system

Evelio Mattos

Distinctive brand assets

Jenni Romaniuk

Discipline

Built from

Amazon

Jason Boyce

Capital and company-building

Mike Fata

Advertising time horizons

Les Binet

Innovation and portfolio

Eric Ryan

Oral-care evidence

Evidence review, no one person

An internal AI research tool. The people named have no affiliation with Poppits and have not reviewed, endorsed or been consulted on this work.

Appendix · Case inputs

The inputs that differ between the three cases

Demand and growth

Floor

Base

Upside

Founding boxes

100

200

300 + 150

Paid acquisition cost at $6k a month

$30

$20

$15

Creator acquisition cost

Base

25% below Base

First orders that subscribe

25%

40%

Word of mouth, households a month

40 + 2% of households

Referral rate at maturity

Viral moments

None

10% a year, averaged

2,500 in months 6 and 18

Amazon units, listing month 12

180

360

720

Amazon growth after month 12

4%, then 2.5%

10% a month

Amazon halo per $1 of own-site first orders

$0.05

$0.15

$0.30

Paid and creator spend caps a month

$24k / $12k

$40k / $20k

$60k / $30k

Hotels and overhead

Floor

Base

Upside

Boutique hotels signed a month

Rooms; stays with a pack

n/a

200; 20%

200; 60%

Anchor hotel group

None

10 properties

15 properties

Airline

None

20,000 packs a month from Jan 2028

Hotel packs that become a home customer

0.05%

0.3%

0.5%

People cost steps a month

$2k / $5k / $7.5k

$4k / $10k / $20k

AI and platform at 10,000 households

$1.5k

$4k

$8k

Everything else is the same in all three cases, including the renewal curve (55%, 85%, 90%, 96%) and every unit cost.

Appendix · Benchmarks

How the cases compare with a well-launched consumer brand

Benchmark (reported)

Typical

Floor

Base

Upside

Year-1 revenue, a well-launched kids' oral-care brand

$0.5M to $0.85M

$0.18M

$0.42M

$1.29M

Year-1 parent buyers

10,000 to 15,000

3,897

7,800

23,281

Marketing as a share of revenue

10 to 15%; 20 to 25% while launching

51 → 29%

31 → 24%

23 → 17%

Growth, years 2 to 3

50 to 100% a year

74%, 57%

217%, 67%

318%, 98%

Revenue path, years 1 to 3

$0.5-1M, $2-5M, $10M+

$0.2M, $0.3M, $0.5M

$0.4M, $1.3M, $2.2M

$1.3M, $5.4M, $10.7M

Benchmarks are trade-press figures for emerging consumer brands (reported, not verified), used as a yardstick, not a source for any input.